At the G20 in Bali, Westerners hope to isolate Russia

Will major developing countries like India or South Africa go so far as to publicly condemn Russia’s war against Ukraine and the world unrest it has caused? This is the main issue of the G20 summit held in Bali on November 15 and 16 under the chairmanship of Indonesia. The results of the war in Ukraine, the increase in the price of energy carriers and the prevention of grain exports through the Black Sea will dominate the meeting.

The United States and the European Union are hoping for a public condemnation of Russia’s aggression against its Ukrainian neighbor in Bali. Developed countries also want to convince major developing countries to join the project to limit the purchase price of Russian oil. “price limit”, A system designed to deprive the Kremlin of the means to continue the war, but which has so far been difficult to implement.

Yes, but so far half of the member states of this forum, which unites developed countries and major developing countries, continue to refuse to isolate Russia. Some, such as China and India, on the other hand, increased their purchases of Russian oil after the start of the Russian invasion on February 24.

Turkey helps Russia avoid sanctions

Since then, Saudi Arabia has also continued to cooperate with Moscow to prevent the fall in crude oil prices. Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, the winner of Brazil’s presidential election, believes Ukraine is as responsible for the war as Russia, and Turkey argues that imposing sanctions would have a disproportionate cost. 35 billion dollars (the same as the euro), due to the loss of tourist revenue and additional energy costs.

Not all of these countries support the Kremlin-initiated war far from it. But they refuse to commit because of their economic interests and certain mistrust towards developed countries.

“Turkey, in addition to strongly helping Ukraine, maintains close relations with Russia. Deniz Ünal, economist of the Prospective Research and International Information Center (Cepii), explains. It depends on Russia for its oil, gas and the Akkuyu nuclear power plant currently under construction in the south of the country. » Admittedly, he prohibited military ships from entering the Black Sea. But he does not turn a blind eye to Russian companies evading sanctions on Turkey. “Since the start of the war, its monthly exports to Russia have increased by an average of 113%” adds the economist.

Rich countries are accused of selfishness

“Many countries in the South are now struggling with high inflation and rising dollar debts. They believe that rich countries have a great responsibility. After promoting hyper-globalization, these do not help them enough, as they saw during the Covid shock and in the face of the climate disasters they went through. This is the reason why they refused to arbitrate between Russia and Ukraine.” Deniz Unal analysis.

Indonesian President Joko Widodo, the organizer of this G20 summit, took a neutral position. He saved his invitation to Vladimir Putin to participate in the summit until the end. In the end, the Russian president decided not to come. He will be replaced by Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov. The President of Ukraine has also been invited and is expected to speak via video conference.

France thinks it can rally developing countries

“Those who come to Bali are countries that want to develop cooperation”, We celebrate in Elysee. Paris wants to believe that Vladimir Putin’s absence reflects his growing isolation. “For most of the developing countries, this war has a high price. The G20 must have a clear discourse on the unacceptable use of energy as a weapon. »

France is also hoping to get a clear position in Bali in favor of extending the Black Sea grain export agreement, which expires on November 19. “This war weighs heavily on everyone, especially the poorest. We cannot pretend that nothing happened.” We explain in Elysee. It remains to be seen whether these arguments will be enough for Beijing or New Delhi to agree to some distance from Moscow.


G20, a forum for North-South cooperation

The G20 unites the 20 largest economies on the planet, accounting for 80% of world GDP. It is an informal cooperation forum based on the same principle as the G7, which unites the major developed countries. It was established in 1999 to improve the coordination of economic policy and the management of financial crises.

It connects South Africa, Germany, Saudi Arabia, Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, South Korea, USA, France, India, Indonesia, Italy, Japan, Mexico, Great Britain, Russia, Turkey, European Union.

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