Be careful in Europe in the face of several economic statistics
By Claude Chenjou
PARIS (Reuters) – Major European stock markets are expected to be slightly higher at the open on Wednesday after a lower session, but caution is warranted as key statistics such as euro zone inflation and U.S. GDP are released. Not to mention Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s scheduled speech.
According to the first indicators available, the Dax in Frankfurt should gain 0.57% at the opening, the FTSE 100 in London should gain 0.4% and the EuroStoxx 50 index should gain 0.51%.
Eurozone monthly consumer price statistics are due at 10:00 GMT and the market expects inflation to slow to 10.4% for the year, according to the Reuters consensus. Inflation in Germany and Spain decreased slightly this month.
In the United States, the second estimate of third-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to show a slight acceleration to 2.7% year-on-year after the 2.6% increase announced in the first quarter, scheduled for 13:30 GMT. Reuters estimates by consensus.
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will also address the US economy and the labor market at an event hosted by the Brookings Institution at 18:30 GMT, as investors get an earlier look at the results of ADP’s monthly survey. about employment.
After four consecutive 75-point increases in credit prices in the United States, the market estimates the possibility of a 50-point limited increase in Fed interest rates in December at 63.5%, and a 75-point increase at 63.5%. 36.5%.
ON WALL STREET
The New York Stock Exchange closed lower on Tuesday with major technology stocks including Apple (-2.1%) in anticipation of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s speech on Wednesday.
The Dow Jones index increased by 0.01% or 3.07 points and reached 33,852.53 points.
The broader S&P-500 index lost 0.16% to 3,957.60 points.
The Nasdaq Composite, which has a strong technological component, fell 65.72 points (-0.59%) to 10,983.78 points.
On the Tokyo Stock Exchange, the Nikkei index lost 0.21% to 27,968.99 points, while the broader Topix fell 0.37% to 1,985.57 points.
In China, the Shanghai SSE Composite lost 0.21% and the CSI 300 lost 0.23% after disappointing economic data. Manufacturing and service activity in China fell to 48.0 and 46.7 respectively in November amid PMI indexes released on Wednesday, amid health restrictions and slowing global demand.
The management and evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic in China also continues to raise concerns, with fresh clashes overnight in the southern city of Guangzhou.
“Headlines about China over COVID-19 restrictions and protests are causing investor anxiety. Even if some easing measures are considered, it may not be enough to prevent further economic disruption,” he said. Anderson Alves, Macroeconomic Analyst at ActivTrades.
“Covid-19 cases are expected to continue to rise; restrictions will be tightened by the end of the year, leading to further uncertainty about the impact on the economy,” he said.
VALUES IN EUROPE:
In Asian trade, the dollar fell 0.22% against a basket of benchmark currencies on Wednesday after reaching its highest level since Nov. 23.
The euro took advantage of the opportunity to rise by 0.21% to $1.0349.
U.S. bond yields ended Wednesday with the ten-year up five basis points to 3.75% and the two-year up 1.5 basis points to 4.48% as they awaited Jerome Powell’s speech.
In Europe, the ten-year German Bund yield fell nearly eight basis points to 1.91% in response to lower inflation in Germany in November.
Oil prices rose in Asian trade on a weaker dollar and a drop in U.S. crude inventories last week, but uncertainties over China and the Dec. 4 OPEC+ meeting capped gains.
Brent oil rose by 1.05% to $83.9 per barrel, US light oil (West Texas Intermediate, WTI) rose by 0.73% to $78.77 per barrel.
(Writing by Claude Chendjou, Editing by Tangi Salaun)