Direct from the markets | Ftse Mib resists sale thanks to utilities and Tim
European stock markets fell at the beginning of the session (-0.23% for Dax, -0.59% for Cac40, -0.19% for Ftse100 and -0.04% for Ftse Mib at 24,256 points). Wall Street futures were little changed (+0.07% in the Dow Jones and +0.05% in the S&P500). Investors are already looking ahead to next week when the Fed will meet on the 14th and the ECB will meet on the 15th. Meanwhile, volatility is returning. “Analysts are confident that next week’s rate hike will be ‘just’ 50 basis points, but doubt remains over the terminal rate and the rate of further monetary tightening,” he said. Barini from Integrae Sim. JP Morgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon said inflation could push the US economy into recession next year. Consumers have $1.5 trillion more in savings from pandemic stimulus programs and are spending 10% more than in 2021. “Inflation is eroding savings and by mid-2023 the trillion and a half will be depleted. From this perspective, the US economy could derail and enter a mild or severe recession. 5% interest rates may not be enough. The result: Wall Street lost 5% in two sessions, returning to mid-November levels,” warned Mr. Barini. The 10-year US Treasury yield was flat at 3.51% and the 10-year Btp yield eased to 3.59%, with the Btp/Bund spread at 183 basis points.
08:20 Europe will be weak, oil is at the lowest level of the year
European stock markets are expected to fall early in the session (-0.15% Eurostoxx futures). Markets are picking up fresh signs of a reopening in China against growing concerns about a U.S. recession and Federal Reserve interest rate hikes. Several media outlets have suggested that the Chinese government is preparing to announce further easing of anti-Covid measures following widespread protests against the country’s new restrictions over the past two months. China’s major cities have already eased some traffic restrictions due to the obvious economic downturn.
Recession fears, oil at lowest level of the year
Expectations of a slowdown in major global economies weigh on commodities. Wti oil fell to its lowest level since December 2021 and is currently at $74.19 (-0.08) a barrel, while Brent oil is at $79.37, its lowest level since early January. After dropping Russian oil to $60 a barrel, the EU is struggling to agree on a gas price cap a week ahead of a meeting where the bloc hopes to resolve the issue. An ounce of gold is stable at $1,780.
Euro remains steady ahead of EU GDP final figure
The euro remains stable at 1.049, pending further important macro data. Already in October industrial production was published in Germany, which fell by 0.1% in October (compared to the consensus estimate of economists -0.5%). October retail sales in Italy at 10:00 (preliminary: +4.1% y/y), final euro zone third quarter GDP at 11:00 (preliminary: +0.2% y/y; +2 .1%) pay attention. Weekly Italian Mortgage Demand Index (initial: +0.2% quarter; +2.1% YoY) Weekly Italian Mortgage Demand Index as of 1pm consensus: QoQ +0.2%; y/y +2.1% y/y), Germany’s weekly mortgage loan application index at 13:00 (preliminary: +0.1% for the quarter; +2.1% for the year). 00 in the weekly US Mortgage Demand Index (prev: -0.8% to 208.1 points), final 3Q unit labor costs (prev: +3.5% qoq) at 2:30 p.m., and 3 final output of the quarter (preliminary: +0.3% for the quarter) and weekly oil inventories at 16:30 (previously: -12.581 million barrels, 419.084 million).
Speech by Philip Lane (ECB).
The spotlight is also on a series of speeches, starting with the ECB’s chief economist, Philip Lane (in an interview with Mf-Milano Finanza, he said he sees signs of a possible rise in rates and inflation). Tomorrow, December 8, the ECB enters a period of silence ahead of its December 15 meeting. Domestically, today is the deadline for submitting amendments to the maneuver, which saw Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni call on unions for a fresh debate. The 10-year BTP yield fell to 3.572%. Greece and Spain were active in the initial market. Yesterday, December 6, the Italian Treasury announced that it will offer 6 billion euros worth of annual BOTs in Friday’s auction.
Watch out for Unipol, Bper, Pop Sondrio, Eni and Juventus in Milan.
Watch out for Unipol, Bper Banca and Banca popolare di Sondrio on the Milan bourse, as alliances with the two former popular banks in non-life and life branches are due to be renewed in the coming weeks, according to MF-Milano Finanza. . Discussions on extending the partnership have been ongoing since last spring, but have accelerated in recent weeks with the aim of reaching a signature by the end of December.
Finance Minister Giancarlo Giorgetti confirmed the government’s commitment to ensuring the orderly exit of MPs from the capital. Regarding Eni, as reported by Mf-Milano Finanza, Libya’s Noc (National Oil Corporation) has asked Eni for a new boost in production from international energy companies such as Bp, Total, ConocoPhillips, Omv and Repsol. Juventus is still the independent audit firm Deloitte & Touche said the revised financial statements provided by Juventus provide an accurate overview of the company’s financial position, but cast doubt on the extent of losses incurred over the past two seasons. Although Brunello Cucinelli again improved its turnover forecast for 2022, a growth forecast of around 28% compared to the +25% announced in October. ()