thirty years war

A social conflict was announced on the agenda of 2023. From January, the trade union front, which brings together all the centers including the CFDT, is planning a “mobilization combined with strikes and demonstrations » Opposing the pension reform that Emmanuel Macron wants. Another surprise: gradually delaying the legal retirement age to 65 in 2031 is the president’s oft-repeated promise. This prospect has been raging on the left for nine months. And even the reluctance in the Macronist camp…

Pension reform: Why Macron wants to introduce it

The presentation of the government bill has just been postponed to January 10. But the course is set: after the final consultation, the executive power intends to impose its obligation “wet measurement” 70% of the French who took part in the survey said they were against it. It seems that nothing can stop the president. There is not even a memory of 2010 with François Fillon in Matignon. At that time, the lowering of the legal age from 60 to 62 threw 3 million demonstrators into the streets in vain.

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As was the case twelve years ago, the government is justifying its funding needs based on the growing demographic imbalance between the active and inactive and the increase in life expectancy. As twelve years ago, this prospect of future deficits is contested by opponents of reform. Arguing over numbers? In the eyes of the president, lowering the legal age is not only the most effective way to bring money to the coffers. It is also about pushing the French to work harder to gain competitiveness. Spaniards or Belgians wait 65 years to retire, while Germans and Italians wait 67 years.

Francois Hommeril: “Emmanuel Macron will be the only person responsible for the conflict over the pensions”

Added to this are personal considerations: Macron claims to have left a mark on history. In 2020, the Covid crisis caused it to stop overhauling pensions. After a slow start to his second five-year term, he hopes to finally make progress. Even if the “right-wing” parametric reform proposed today has nothing to do with the social-democratic big bang of the points-based pension promised in 2017…

Possible use of 49.3

It remains to accept “mother of reforms”. In the Assembly, the front of rejection stretches from the left (Nupes) to the Lepenist extreme right. Without an absolute majority, the executive can only count on the support of LR MPs to support the measure they themselves have been advocating for centuries. Problem: distribution is infringing. A new, newly elected leader, Eric Ciotti “Always advocated raising the contribution period or retirement age” intends to dictate “conditions”. Christmas talks will aim to lift him out of limbo. And perhaps delaying the legal age to 64 by extending the contribution period. A proposal voted down by senators right in November.

With or without LR, the government has already planned to cover this matter in the Social Security Finance Bill. At stake is a brief discussion and possible use of 49.3 to avoid a vote at the meeting. But the condemnation actions will rain later. If he accidentally submits a right, it will be approved by Nupes and RN. This will be the end of Borne’s government…

Laurent Berger: “The pension plan at the age of 65 is very unfair”

The fight will also be played in the street. While the government praises the establishment of a minimum pension of 1,200 euros and provisions for long and/or difficult careers, the unions intend to mobilize on the symbol of an age measure that affects all workers without distinction. The abolition of special regimes for new entrants to RATP and the electricity and gas industry may lead to punitive strikes. What can disrupt the reform? Besides, some trade union members themselves doubt it. Have French workers who hung up the phone at an average age of 63.1 already quit? The last defeat of the government in this war occurred in 1995. Another era.

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