United Kingdom: Uncertain future of Rishi Sunak government
British politics will approach 2023 with a slightly pagan side. Amid strong industrial action, the fate of Rishi Sunak’s conservative government will be determined more by the weather than by striking voters, parliamentarians or transport workers. A sudden cooldown after an unusually mild fall could trigger a wave of blackouts that could bring down the government. On the other hand, a warm winter will reduce energy costs and put less strain on public finances.
Read alsoGreat Britain: explosion in living costs leads to wave of strikes
A promising spring…
So let us imagine that the weather gods are in favor of Rishi Sunak. In the spring, the prime minister finds that things are going a little better than expected. When he took office in October 2022, Labor held a 30-point lead in the polls. Six months on, some polls show the Tories now trailing Labor by just 5 points, even after a painful series of tax hikes and spending cuts imposed by Chancellor of the Exchequer Jeremy Hunt.
Rishi Sunak, who managed to blame his failed predecessor Liz Truss for the explosion in mortgage rates, has better popularity ratings than his party and is more confident about the economy than Labor leader Sir Keir Starmer. Although the next general election is not scheduled until January 2025 at the latest, his advisers are beginning to whisper about the possibility of early elections. However, after several weeks of deliberation, the Prime Minister decides not to take the risk.
He quickly realizes that it would be better to do that. More than 5,000 migrants cross the Channel by boat every day during the summer months. This has prompted the UK to sign a deal with France, committing to pay it €2.6bn a year to dismantle smugglers’ networks. “This is a historic agreement between the UK and France,” said French President Emmanuel Macron. “We look forward to strengthening our friendship as discussions on fishing rights open next year.” In September, Brexit supporter Nigel Farage announced the formation of a new party on board a trawler sailing off the island of Guernsey. “They can keep the boats,” he says. We will keep the fish.
…before a heavy summer?
The summer of discontent begins in June, when doctors begin a series of strikes in which all non-essential procedures are canceled. Elected by less than 3,000 votes, the Conservative MP switched sides to join Labor to end a miserable summer. “Keir Starmer’s Labor Party represents the values set out in the 2019 Conservative manifesto that I was elected to,” he said, proudly wearing red in his buttonhole.
Conservative parliamentarians’ attacks on Labor are not working. They are trying to present Starmer as “bis Corbyn” (referring to Jeremy Corbyn, his predecessor as leader of the Labor Party). But Rishi Sunak refuses to bow to the tactics once used by Boris Johnson, who blamed his failure as head of the Crown Judiciary on his failure to prosecute media celebrity Jimmy Savile, who was revealed to be a pedophile after the death of Keir Starmer.
There is a feeling among mass MPs that Rishi Sunak does not have the power to defeat Labour. Conservative rebels led by former interior minister Suella Braverman, who was fired after a disastrous few months in office, reduced the government’s effective majority to almost zero.
Read alsoInflation, health, migrants: Sunak promises to deal with the most pressing issues
A cold snap at the end of 2023 prompts Martin Lewis, an increasingly messianic investment expert, to warn of the risks of disorder if the authorities do not help people pay their energy bills. Compared to the previous year, the price of gas has not decreased.
The Conservatives are again 20 points behind Labor and Keir Starmer is predicting an election wave in Labour’s favour. Rishi Sunak, in a down jacket at home after launching an energy-saving campaign called “Turn Down the Heat for the Food-Free,” thinks a snap election might not be such a bad idea, all things considered.
Duncan Robinson, political reporter The Economist
