Direct from the markets | Inflation week in the US should be marked by an increase in Europe
European stock markets positive expectations In early trade, the Eurostoxx50 rose 0.67% ahead of the release of key macro data. At 8:00 a.m. Germany’s monthly output in November (estimated at +0.1% vs. -0.1% in October) and at 11:00 a.m. Europe’s November unemployment rate, which should remain steady at 6.5%. Wall Street futures also rose (+0.19% in the Dow Jones and +0.28% in the S&P500). 10-year US Treasury yield It fell to 3.56%, while the 10-year Btp rose to 4.22%.
Key Macroeconomic Data in Key Fed Countries
On Thursday, January 12 at 2:30 p.m., the most important data from the Fed: weekly US jobless claims (estimated at 220k vs. 204k last week). Also at 2:30 p.mUS inflation in December (estimated at 6.5 percent vs. 7.1 percent in November). “The known and estimated data, if confirmed, would indicate that the Fed could tentatively move closer to achieving its three most important goals. A 375 basis point increase in interest rates since January has pushed inflation lower, although Fed Chairman Jerome Powell recently reminded us that inflation remains high. unemployment is around the natural ratealmost all Americans are employed and GDP grew 3.2% in the third quarter, partly due to a +2.3% increase in personal consumption. A slowdown is expected in the fourth quarter,” said Antonio Tognoli of Cfo Sim.
The data suggests that, on balance, the economy could sustain further growth of at least 100/150 basis points (the first of which will likely be 50 basis points at its next meeting on January 25/36), according to Mr Tognoli. ), sliding into a soft landing and unemployment rate of 4%. This is likely to accelerate the achievement of the 2% inflation target.
The dollar is expected to weaken
Implications for 2023 indicate “a weakening dollar that could return to 0.9 against the euro” in any case. The Integrae Sim expert explains that a weak dollar usually means that emerging market currencies tend to appreciate, although recently the dollar appears to have weakened mainly at the expense of other strong currencies, such as the euro (at 1.067, +0.45%) ). yen (131.853 exchange rate, -0.06%) and Swiss franc. A weaker dollar is also favorable for oil prices (Brent +1.36% to USD 79.64/bbl and Wti +1.45% to USD 74.84/bbl) tends to be inversely related to the dollar price. “However, at this stage, it is necessary to assess how a long or very long recession in Europe and the United States may affect the price of a barrel and how the political situation in Iran may develop,” warned Mr. Tognoli.
Watch out for Mps, Tim, Brunello Cucinelli and utilities in Milan.
On the Milan list, Mps among the banks, because there is room for more banking poles in Italy for CEO Luigi Lovaglio. A consolidation that will definitely attract the Sienese bank. On the other hand, as far as Tim is concerned, the Macquarie infrastructure fund, Cassa Depositi e Prestiti in Open Fiber partner, supports the government’s plan to create a national tlc network and is working with stakeholders on the project. , Gianluca Ricci, head of Macquarie Asset Management Italy, said in an interview with Milano Finanza on Saturday. Also according to Milano Finanza, Irene wants to sell a minority stake in the gas distribution company, which could have an enterprise value of 700-800 million euros. Similarly, Edison, a subsidiary of Edf, may decide to sell its gas storage business, while Snam may consider selling its stake in Stogit, which operates the gas storage facility. Finally, it should be remembered that the Board of Directors of Brunello Cucinelli is meeting to analyze the preliminary balance sheet data (revenues). ()