The green light has been given for the World Cup to be held at the resort of Les Rousses at the end of January

AFP

China’s population has declined for the first time in more than 60 years

It’s a historic turning point: China, the world’s most populous country, home to one-sixth of the planet’s population, saw its population shrink last year, a decline unheard of in six decades. According to demographers, housing may last until the end of the century, which will seriously affect the economy and the pension system. It has already announced to the UN that India should dethrone China as the most populous country this year. still have the guts to have a baby? The unemployment rate is high (among young people), Covid has overturned everything,” the 30-year-old from Shanghai told AFP. The Chinese were once known for their large families. The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) said on Tuesday that since the 1960s, the population has doubled to over 1.4 billion today. There were only 9.56 million people in mainland China.&nbs p;Parallelly, 10.41 million deaths were recorded. The combination of the two events led to a decrease in the population (minus 850 thousand people). Tens of millions of people died as a result of the economic policy mistakes of the Great Leap Forward. Paradoxically, this decline is happening despite the easing of birth control policies. 10 years ago, the Chinese had only one child. From 2021, they may have three. – “Small families ” – How to explain this fall? In China, the cost of living and the cost of raising children have increased dramatically. The high level of education of women also delays pregnancies. “The decades-long single-child sia “There is now a habit of having smaller families because of the population,” said Xiujian Peng, a researcher specializing in Chinese demography. The University of Victoria (Australia) told AFP that the desire to have children has also decreased among young people. AFP Ms. Huang, 30, from Beijing. “I don’t think about having children. I can support myself, maybe I won’t even look for a lover. A lot of people think so now,” he says. In 2019, the UN still believed that China would not reach its peak population until 2031-2032. Since then, the birth rate has fallen to 1.15 children per woman in 2021. well past the threshold (2.1). In France, it was 1.8 in 2020. “Population decline and aging (…) will have a profound impact on China’s economy from now until 2100,” Xiujian Peng warns : “A shrinking workforce means higher ‘labor costs,'” which will “affect China’s competitiveness in the global market,” he said. The pension system, pension payments could account for 20% of GDP in 2100 – compared to 4% in 2020. “The pressure to care for the working population will increase for the elderly,” independent demographer He Yafu told AFP. .- Bonuses – Many local authorities have started measures to encourage couples to reproduce. The Shenzhen (southern) metropolis offers a birth bonus and benefits paid until the child reaches the age of three. age A couple welcoming their first baby will automatically receive 3,000 yuan (410 euros), or even 10,000 yuan (1,370 euros). s) if the third. In total, a family with three children will receive 37,500 yuan (5,150 euros) in premiums and allowances. Shandong province (east) offers 158 days of maternity leave (60 more than the national standard), from the first child. To avoid complications, Changsha city (the center), which limits the purchase of apartments, allows couples with two or three children to buy additional apartments. Enough measures? (Government) clearly confirm that there is no longer any limit on the birth rate to recreate the true culture of the birth rate,” He Yafu affirms. China’s population could shrink by an average of 1.1% per year, according to a study by the Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences, reported to AFP. According to the most pessimistic projections, China could have a population of just 587 million in 2100, less than half of today’s. mographs. ehl-bur/ka/roc/emp