World order, war in Ukraine, Morocco-France-Algeria, World Cup… Pascal Boniface’s opinion
After his conference on the geopolitics of sport in Rabat on Tuesday, Pascal Bonifas held another conference the following day, Wednesday, January 18, at the Institut Français in Casablanca. “Global Geopolitical Realignments”more about the conflict in Ukraine and its implications for the world order.
Within the framework of this event, the director of the Institute of International and Strategic Relations (IRIS) and the famous French geopolitician, known for his frankness, answered the questions of Médias24.
As for Morocco-France relations, Pascal Bonifas is pleased with the resolution of the visa issue. French rudeness and the reasons go back to internal political reasons. “When international decisions are made for domestic political reasons, it rarely succeeds.
Regarding France’s position on the Sahara, he affirms that it is clear and in Morocco’s favor, as France supports Morocco’s plan for self-determination in the Sahara.
He admits that the recognition of America seems to be one “game changer”but he also believes that France’s permanent membership of the Security Council does not allow it to change the position determined by that Security Council on a national scale.
Moreover, he does not believe that France has a tendency to favor relations with Algeria to the detriment of Morocco, but believes that France wants to develop them independently of each other.
He also explains that France’s relations with Algeria require more effort because “there is a memory problem between these two countries that does not exist between France and Morocco.”
The war in Morocco and Ukraine
Faced with the growing polarization between the US and China and the geopolitical realignment resulting from the war in Ukraine, he believes that nothing prevents Morocco from developing its relations with all major powers.
Pascal emphasizes the development of Boniface’s idea “The West Against the Rest” This especially translates into Western positions that are not automatically followed by the rest of the world, whereas the West is used to considering its positions and values as universal.
This is evidenced by the fact that no African country, including Morocco, voted against Russia at the United Nations. He also admits it Morocco was not interested especially since Russia is also a permanent member of the Security Council, which annually adopts a resolution on the Sahara.
Lions at the World Cup
Pascal Bonifas, who is also an expert on the geopolitics of sports, admits this Scored in Morocco’s view soft power around the world. He recalls that most of the French supported Morocco during the whole trip of the World Cup, except when France met France in the semi-finals.
“There is no doubt that this extraordinary journey has increased at the World Cup Morocco’s reputation in Africa and the Arab world. It will always be said that Morocco will be the first Arab and African country to advance to the semi-finals.
Pascal Boniface, one of those who thought Putin would not go so far as to invade Ukraine, admits he was wrong, as were many experts elsewhere. If he did not believe, it was because he thought that Putin was not interested in it. In this regard, time proved him right, as the Russian invasion was nothing short of a success.
He explains how Putin lost what he built over the years in a few months. All its legitimacy is based on the restoration of Russia’s influence in the international world. Its reliability is in serious question, especially with regard to people fleeing the country.
Like many other leaders, it was his extreme pride that convinced him he could succeed where all others had failed. Invasions by great powers, even weak ones, have failed: the United States’ military presence in Vietnam, Iraq and Afghanistan, the USSR’s in Afghanistan, and even France’s military presence in Mali did not last long.
All this was not enough to convince Putin not to go to war. During the war in Afghanistan, the Soviets lost 15,000 men in ten years. According to Pascal Boniface, Russia’s losses in Ukraine have already exceeded this number in less than a year.
The result of the war
there is Ukraine has no chance of being invaded, now believed to be strongly supported by Westerners. With the tanks it has begun to acquire, Ukraine has the opportunity to make further advances. And Zelensky always demands more armaments from his allies. The difference in means between the West and Russia also shows this. NATO’s GDP is 30 times greater than Russia’s.
Ukraine therefore manages to maintain its position, but this does not mean that it will have the opportunity to go further. The duel will have to be localized in Donbass, as for Crimea, this seems to be a red line, especially for the US, to prevent Putin from using nuclear weapons. In addition, the situation in Crimea is complicated, because even if it is illegally annexed, its inhabitants feel Russian, Pascal Boniface reports.
The aims of the war on both sides are no longer very clear, and the end of the war seems more and more complicated. The West is waging a proxy war against Russia and an ongoing war scenario is increasingly likely.
The winners and losers of the war
Gone are the days when NATO was considered brain dead. Today, NATO has never been more active. For the greater good of the United States. Europeans throw themselves into the arms of Americans and buy them weapons with all your might.
“Not a very logical decisionbecause Russia has proven with its failure in Ukraine that it is not capable of waging a war on a large scale,” the geopolitical expert notes. Defense Europe no longer seems relevant.
But outside of NATO, the rest of the world no longer seems too concerned about the West’s stance, which in itself is indicative of an important turning point and global geopolitical recomposition.Isolation from the West. Westerners, accustomed to thinking that their causes are universal, still cannot accept that other countries can act in their own interests.
On the other hand, Turkey seems to be the big winner of this war. It has become the inevitable power, the only one capable of dealing with Ukraine and Russia at the same time. As a member of NATO, it has a kind of free speech in the matter of sanctions against Russia.